The Holiday Season That Dictates the Future

So with the rather lack of games we’ve been getting lately, the next question is when will Microsoft and Sony pony up and release their next generation of consoles? As of now neither has really officially hinted at a certain release date, although for certain the rumors are flying everywhere. The truth is, and they won’t admit it, the launch dates for both consoles depends on one element:


The WiiU Launch.


Never in gaming has a company had such a head start towards the next generation---unless you count the Dreamcast which came out at the worst possible time. To this day the Sega folks still kicks themselves for not releasing it a year later. Alright, back to Nintendo. Nintendo’s head start is at least one year, and could quite possibly be 2-3 years---which gives them the entire market to themselves for quite some time. If there is an opportunity for some new IPs and some highly-anticipated exclusives, the time would definitely be the 2012 Holiday Season/2013 Spring timeframe.

Nintendo’s head start could whether be good news or devastating news. It is as simple as this: if the WiiU can have a crazy successful Wii-like launch, then expect those two companies to roll over their systems the very next holiday season if not extremely early 2014. If the WiiU were to launch well, then expect them to try to kill the momentum before they wind up six feet under. Expect them to crash E3 2013 with their new stuff and just play catch up.

And trust me, Sony does not ever want to play catch up ever again—the Playstation 3 is the best-selling system amongst the consoles within the last two years but you would never know that. Nobody would ever know that as Sony to this day is losing money from the way they flopped during their launch.

But if Nintendo’s WiiU would pull a 3DS and take off on an extremely slow start, then expect Sony and Microsoft to take their sweet time and aim for a 2014 release, while still keeping their current systems prevalent with their sequels and strong third-party support. They can watch Nintendo squirm for an audience while building a marketing drive and convince gamers to wait around a little bit longer for their eighth generation appearance.

Bottom Line: Don’t take any of my dates as fact, but I predict that depending on what the WiiU does this holiday season determines the set date of the competitors. You are foolish if you think Sony and Microsoft don’t have the next machine in the backburner, waiting patiently to be unleashed. Arguably one of the most important holiday seasons in a business standpoint for the gaming industry, the WiiU will set out to see if the world of gaming still has some life in it and if Nintendo can repeat the mammoth starter success of the Wii---which led to them winning the Seventh Generation war. Only time will tell of Nintendo’s success---and when we will see the other new systems.